Green Coffee Market in Week 36 of 2026: Brazil’s Harvest Weighs on Prices
Coffee prices continue to decline as Brazil’s approaching harvest completion and strong Vietnamese exports increase supply. However, low Arabica stocks leave the market exposed to sharp price swings.
Arabica and Robusta prices decline
ICE Arabica futures fell to around 295 cents per pound, while Robusta traded near USD 3,374 per metric ton. Both markets reached multi-month lows.
As new-crop coffee becomes available, exporters and roasters have access to more supply. This eases concerns about nearby deliveries and adds downward pressure to prices.
Brazil’s harvest is almost complete
By August 26, Brazil’s coffee harvest was approximately 97% complete, with Arabica at 96%. Conilon/Robusta harvesting had effectively finished.
Harvest completion increases the amount of coffee available for sale. Rain returning in late August also improved conditions for flowering for the next crop. However, subsequent weather, including risks associated with El Niño, remains an important market factor.
Low Arabica stocks provide price support
ICE-certified Arabica inventories fell to approximately 223,700 bags. Limited coffee available for exchange delivery keeps the market sensitive to disruptions.
Even as broader supply improves, new logistics or weather problems could trigger sharp rallies. Lower prices therefore do not mean that tightness in the Arabica market has disappeared.
Robusta supply becomes more balanced
ICE Robusta stocks rose to around 5,000 lots, their highest level in more than nine months. Vietnam’s coffee exports during January–August reached approximately 1.33 million metric tons, up 13.7% year on year.
Stronger shipments reduce the risk of a Robusta shortage. However, nearby physical offers in Vietnam remain relatively firm because remaining old-crop supply is limited.
For buyers, two factors remain central: coffee supply is improving, but low Arabica stocks continue to create volatility risks. Purchasing plans need to account for the availability of individual lots as well as futures prices.
Based on market reports by Central Coffee Roasting (CCR).
