Green Coffee Market in July 2026: Arabica and Robusta Prices

The green coffee market remains volatile. At the end of July, Arabica and Robusta prices were influenced simultaneously by weather conditions in Brazil, the pace of the harvest, and expectations for higher global coffee production in the 2026/27 season.

At the same time, the two main market segments are developing differently: Arabica supply for nearby delivery remains limited, while Robusta availability is gradually improving.

Arabica Prices: Harvest Progress Improves, but Supply Remains Tight

Heavy rainfall in Brazil in recent weeks delayed coffee harvesting and drying, supporting higher Arabica prices. However, forecasts for predominantly dry weather suggest that harvesting activity could accelerate.

The September ICE Arabica futures contract traded at around 325 cents per pound, easing slightly after reaching a two-week high.

Despite improved weather conditions, Brazil’s coffee harvest is still behind both last year’s pace and the five-year average. As harvesting accelerates, coffee availability for export is expected to gradually increase.

At the same time, Arabica stocks remain low. ICE-certified inventories have fallen to approximately 266,200 bags — their lowest level in around two and a half years. Limited nearby supply continues to support prices even as the production outlook improves.

Current Brazilian green coffee offerings are available in the Green Coffee Hub catalog.

Robusta Prices Remain More Stable

The Robusta market appeared more balanced at the end of July. The September ICE contract traded at around USD 3,784 per metric ton, while certified Robusta stocks continued to increase, reaching 4,230 lots.

Vietnam remains one of the key factors supporting the market. Coffee exports from the country remain strong, while production prospects continue to improve. This is contributing to greater Robusta availability on the global market.

Harvesting in Indonesia is also progressing under generally favorable weather conditions, further increasing Robusta availability for export.

As a result, in the short term, Robusta prices may remain more stable than Arabica prices, provided the market does not face significant weather disruptions.

Green Coffee Hub also offers Vietnam Robusta Wet Polished.

Global Coffee Production Could Increase

The medium-term outlook for the global coffee market is gradually improving.

According to USDA data cited in the CCR report, global coffee production in the 2026/27 season could increase by approximately 6% and reach a record level. Brazil is also expected to produce a significantly larger crop compared with the previous season.

If these forecasts are realized, green coffee supply could improve during the second half of the season and reduce upward pressure on prices.

This means that two opposing forces are currently shaping the market: tight inventories are supporting Arabica prices in the short term, while expectations of higher global production are improving the longer-term supply outlook.

Weather Remains the Biggest Risk for the Coffee Market

Despite improving harvest conditions in Brazil, weather remains one of the main sources of uncertainty for the global coffee market.

Market participants continue to monitor weather developments associated with El Niño. The flowering period in Brazil during September and October will be particularly important, as it will influence the outlook for the next crop.

Over the coming months, coffee price movements will therefore depend not only on current inventory levels and export volumes, but also on weather conditions across key coffee-producing regions.

What This Means for Roasters and Green Coffee Buyers

In the current Arabica market, nearby supply remains relatively tight, while conditions in the Robusta segment are gradually becoming more stable.

When planning green coffee purchases, buyers should monitor several factors at once: harvest progress in Brazil, ICE inventory levels, export volumes from Vietnam, and weather conditions in major producing countries.

Current varieties, origins, and available lots of green coffee for roasting can be found in the Green Coffee Hub catalog.

Based on market reports by Central Coffee Roasting (CCR).